CNA Military Advisory Board Report 2007
by Dennis V. McGinn
Since early last year, I have had the privilege of serving with some of America’s most distinguished and senior retired military leaders on the CNA Military Advisory Board, which produced two reports directly related to the recent MOAA/Pew/CNA Washington forum. The first report examined the national security threats of climate change, and the second report analyzed the national security threats of America’s current energy posture.
After several years of examining climate change and the United States’ energy use, it is clear to our military advisory board that our economic, energy, climate change and national security challenges are inextricably linked. Our current global economy has temporarily reduced demand and the cost of oil. However, as the recession ends, the volatile cycle of ever-higher fuel prices will most surely return. This is a critical and long term international issue—one that stretches across geographical boundaries, over political divides, and one that will be with us for decades to come. Without decisive action, fierce global competition, instability and conflict over dwindling supplies of fossil fuels will be a major part of the future strategic landscape. Moving toward clean and sustainable energy choices can lessen that danger, improve global, national and sub-national economic security and help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change.
The CNA Military Advisory Board produced a report in 2007 called “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change.” Its principal conclusion was that climate change poses a serious threat to national security by acting as a "threat multiplier” for instability in some of the world's most volatile regions.
Climate change is different from traditional military threats, because it is not like having a specific enemy, well-defined response timeline, or crisis spot we’re trying to handle. Climate change has the potential to create more frequent and intense natural and humanitarian disasters due to flooding, droughts, disease, and crop failure.
Climate impacts, occurring more frequently and more intensely across the globe, will inevitably create political instability where societal demands for the essentials of life exceed the capacity of governments to cope. Fragile governments will become failed states, and desperation and hopelessness will drive whole populations to be displaced on a scale far beyond what we see today. And this, in turn, creates a more fertile breeding ground for extremists and the terrorism that can follow.
At the same time—and this is at the nexus of climate change, energy and international security—increasing demand for, and dwindling supplies of fossil fuels will add to this instability, in many of the places worst hit by climate change.
In our second report, the CNA Military Advisory Board concluded that America’s current energy posture constitutes a serious and urgent threat to national security—militarily, diplomatically and economically.
Our report finds that our dependence—not just imported oil—but all oil—and not just oil but all fossil fuels, poses significant security threats and this dependence is exploitable by those who wish to do us harm. In our judgment, the United States’ pattern of energy usage in a business-as-usual manner creates an unacceptably high threat level from a series of converging risks: diverging supply and demand dynamics for critical resources, competition and conflict over fossil fuel and water, and the instability caused by the effects of climate change.
Some may be surprised to hear former generals and admirals talk about climate change and clean energy… but they shouldn’t be. In the military, you learn quickly that reducing threats and vulnerabilities is essential, well before you get into harm’s way. As military professionals we were trained, and learned by hard experience, to make decisions when faced with threatening situations, even when they were defined by ambiguous information. We base our decisions on trends, indicators and warnings, because waiting for 100% certainty during a crisis can be disastrous. And as we carefully consider the threat of climate change and energy to global security, the trends and warnings are clear.
In a very real sense, we are at a pivotal moment in history, facing a challenge unlike any the world has seen before. Some may say we cannot afford to act at this moment. But they fail to recognize, not only the gravity and urgency—but also the great opportunity. There is a new multibillion-dollar revolution underway in clean technology around the world. Energy efficiency—the cleanest fuel that need never be burned—represents a just barely tapped resource that holds enormous power for all economies of the world. And the possibilities to develop and deploy clean, renewable forms of energy are just beginning to provide great value to our future prosperity and security.
In all of this, the Department of Defense and Services can play a key leadership role. By working to prevent, mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through roles and mission review, energy efficiency, new technology, and using the great buying power of DoD, our national security community will make an essential and important contribution to meeting the linked challenges of climate change and energy security.
Perhaps most important is the opportunity these challenges create for us to work together as a global community. Coordinated action now is critical to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Moving forward quickly at both the national and international levels in the transition to clean energy will help protect and grow our economies, make us more secure, and can act as a powerful catalyst for international collaboration to better address a whole host of pressing issues.